All Gambling Games Are Odds Vs Payout

Jerico

No matter what your favorite game is, all gambling games are essentially odds vs payout. Forget about what determines whether you win or lose, and look at gambling from a mathematical perspective alone. Let's compare roulette and sports betting. On a European roulette wheel, there are 37 pockets and the payout for a single number win is 35-1. In this case, the odds of winning (assuming the wheel is random) are 1 in 37. But for a win, you are paid 35 chips (plus your original bet). This is easy to understand even for amateurs.

Now say you bet on a sports team to win, and they were a long-shot at 15-1. Most sports gamblers would call this the "odds", but it's not. The 15-1 is the payout. So what are the odds then? Nobody really knows. Bookies usually change the payouts depending on what gamblers bet, so the bookie will never lose. The bookie couldn't care less who wins or loses. The odds in this example are simply the chance of a particular team winning. One gambler might thing the "long-shot team" has a 1 in 10 chance of winning. Another gambler might think there's a 1 in 20 chance. And yet another gambler might see that the "long-shot" team had lost it's previous few games because of critical missing injured players, that will return for the next game. And this gambler may estimate the long-shot has a realistic 1 in 5 chance of winning its next game. They will then recognize the large difference between the odds of 1 in 5, and the payout of 15 to 1.

In sports betting, this is a "value bet". But I'm just using it as an example to illustrate the difference between odds and payout.

My favorite game is by far roulette. I prefer it because I find it by far the most profitable casino game (in the right conditions). Many people might disagree with me, but remember I said "in the right conditions". Although I wont get into that in this post. Even if it wasn't necessarily the most profitable casino game, I would likely still prefer it. This is because my motivations are not solely profit. In fact if I only aimed to profit, I probably wouldn't focus on advantage play because there are easier ways to make money. Sure you can earn large sums very quickly in the right conditions, but it's still work.

But let's assume your intention is solely profit. In such a case, you need to put ego, fun and personal preference aside. Then focus on which games will give you the highest payout with the best odds. Or more specifically, you need the biggest discrepancy between odds and payouts. Put another way, you're looking for the "best value bet".

So what's the best value bet?

What's the best casino game to play?

The reality is it depends on where you play. Although I've found roulette to be best for me, in some casinos it's nearly impossible to beat roulette. This could be for reasons like the casino only has one wheel, and it's notoriously difficult to beat. But the same casino might use poor procedures that makes blackjack card counting a more viable option. Or perhaps there may be a large group of inexperienced, drunk and wealthy poker players in the casino at the time. Then if you're a seasoned player, then poker might be the most profitable option for you (at least on that day).

Hopefully now you're thinking more outside the box. The best advantage players quickly recognize and exploit opportunities as they present themselves. The more you learn about the weaknesses of games, the easier it is for you to recognize good or bad conditions. Then when good conditions are found, you can adapt yourself for more productive play.

Shouryuu

I have always changed my game to fit the circumstances. Sometimes there are winners in different games than I am really used to playing but watching for a while will usually get me up to speed. Eventually, you will win a few and lose a few unless you are a real pro!

Reppa

Yes but it doesn't mean they can't be beaten

Raymond

I have always changed my game to fit the circumstances.